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Wednesday Tropics check: Gulf systems staying south (10/02/2024)

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TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WTXL) — We continue to see limited local effects expected from two zones of tropical moisture that are in or will reach sections of the Gulf of Mexico.

The first of these lobes of moisture will move north toward the central Gulf coast Thursday and Friday. This will interact with a leftover frontal zone and produce areas of clouds and rain. Local rain coverage favors northern Florida locations in a scattered variety, with a low-end chance for a few thunderstorms. Tropical disturbance development is not expected from this.

A series of cold fronts over the weekend and early next week will effectively suppress the second moisture zone in the southern Gulf from moving too far north. The area of disturbed weather will generally move to the east through the first few days of next week, which would direct most of the rain and unsettled conditions toward the western Florida peninsula. It can become a named system, but current forecast guidance lean more toward a somewhat disheveled, lesser-organized system.

Because of these, we do not anticipate any sort of organized system approaching the shores of the Big Bend through the middle of next week.

As a reminder for future tropical systems, First to Know Weather looks for trends and signals from various forecast data sources, not just one model version or a worst-case depiction. When something shows a legitimate near- or long-range concern for the Big Bend/southern Georgia regions, we will notify you accordingly through our numerous digital, online, and broadcast avenues.