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Wednesday Tropics check: Disturbances likely to be deflected (10/16/2024)

Factors influencing Caribbean moisture (10/14/2024)
Factors influencing Atlantic disturbance (10/14/2024)
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TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WTXL) — The two areas of tropical disturbances (in the western Caribbean and the open tropical Atlantic) continue to pose no risk to our region of the northeastern Gulf this weekend or next week. High-pressure zones overhead now and those to come through next week will prevent either area from coming toward our area.

The Caribbean moisture is still expected to move mainly to the west into the landscape of Central America.

The disturbance east of the Leeward Islands is forecast to keep moving west and into some of the islands early next week. The system will have to fight nearby dry air and a zone of faster upper-level winds to gain any sort of decent strengthening or organizing. The National Hurricane Center keeps the Atlantic system at a mid-range (40%) chance for development over the next seven days.

As a reminder for future tropical systems, First to Know Weather looks for trends and signals from various forecast data sources, not just one model version or a worst-case depiction. When something shows a legitimate near- or long-range concern for the Big Bend/southern Georgia regions, we will notify you accordingly through our numerous digital, online, and broadcast avenues.