TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WTXL) — The moisture zone in the central Caribbean Sea — heavily disorganized because of brisk upper-level winds nearby — is shown to gather and congeal over this weekend, supporting some gradual development of a low-pressure system. Today's trends keep the disturbance meandering around the Caribbean Sea through early next week, with a slow drift to the west and northwest possible.
High pressure over the western Atlantic, and stretched over our region, will remain in place through early next week. The positioning of this high will effectively block any swift northward movement of the disturbance through early next week.
Gulf conditions later next week are forecast to feature the existing western Atlantic high and some cold fronts moving toward the Mississippi River region. Upper-level winds are projected to be stronger by midweek, and Gulf water temperatures are marginally warm enough for some support of a low-end tropical low.
These are forecast trends that extend into the middle of next week and beyond, where there is no reliable precision in the evolution and projected movement of the system.
There is still no enhanced threat to our region from this feature through the middle of next week. Various versions of forecast models still widely vary on a long-range solution for it, but nothing indicates a major concern for the Big Bend region.
We continue to offer the following as a strong reminder about online low-analysis amateur speculation and doom-postings about a November storm:
First to Know Weather looks for trends and signals from various forecast data sources, not just one model version or a worst-case depiction. When something shows a legitimate near- or long-range concern for the Big Bend/southern Georgia regions, we will notify you accordingly through our numerous digital, online, and broadcast avenues.
