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Wednesday evening First To Know Tropics check (09/04/2024)

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TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WTXL) — As we are generally in the thick of the Atlantic hurricane season in terms of activity and frequency of developing systems, we are still encountering a void in any anticipated short-term development of the areas of moisture that are present.

The Caribbean moisture wave nearing Jamaica will remain ragged and not well-built as it moves west into the Yucatan Peninsula later this week. Over the weekend and early next week, the moisture zone will be over the southwestern Gulf. Some development is possible in the warm waters there, but current forecast trends don't latch onto a steady strengthening pattern yet.

Other waves in the open tropical Atlantic will battle zones of upper wind shear and drier-than-usual air nearby.

A batch of moisture south of Bermuda has limited chances to gain a better-formed low as it is forecast to move north, staying offshore from the U.S. east coast.

As a reminder for future tropical systems, First to Know Weather looks for trends and signals from various forecast data sources, not just one model version or a worst-case depiction. When something shows a legitimate near- or long-range concern for the Big Bend/southern Georgia regions, we will notify you accordingly through our numerous digital, online, and broadcast avenues.