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Why river level forecast to rise over major flood stage days after rain ends

Santa Fe River at Three River Estates levels continue to rise to major flood stage this week
Water from feeder rivers, streams, and creeks will lead to increased water levels in Suwannee River near Live Oak
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TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WTXL — A complex system of rivers, creeks, and streams makes up the Suwannee River Basin located throughout southeast Georgia into the southeast Big Bend.

Over the last several days, copious amounts of rain have fallen all across the basin.

Yes, some river levels rose immediately thanks to rain falling directly around the waterways of the basin, but you have to remember, there is still a lot of water finding its way through groundwater systems into the rivers and creeks. Inland flood waters still are trying to recede, so most of that water will eventually have to run off into nearby groundwater systems- feeding into flowing water.

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Water from feeder rivers, streams, and creeks will lead to increased water levels in Suwannee River near Live Oak
Water from feeder rivers, streams, and creeks will lead to increased water levels in Suwannee River near Live Oak

Now we have runoff into these basin's water sources, and most of those are still even to our north when looking at the Suwannee River Basin and the Sante Fe River in southern Suwannee County.

So while river gauges show that river levels in the Sante Fe River are already at flood stage, we still have a lot more water to go.

This is thanks to- not only local water finding its way into the river in areas like Live Oak that are flooded, but we also have all that water still making its way into creeks, rivers, and streams that all funnel into the Suwannee River Basin NORTH of our neighborhoods. All that water is broken up between multiple waterways which are already running high.

We have that extra water and flow funneling into ONE river- the Sante Fe River- over the next few days... and you can imagine river levels will continue to increase at a rapid pace.

Think of 5 people hold a cup of water with various amounts of water. One may be holding one with a few centimeters of water while others could be holding cups full of water. Now those 5 people independently pour that water out at the same time into a funnel. Of course they water flow out of the cups will vary on the amount of water they all have- as do our upper basin rivers and creeks- but when that water hits the funnel, it all adds up to produce a much higher level of flow!

Think of our northern basins as each of the individual cups- rightfully flowing at a rapid and high rate themselves thanks to local groundwater increase from hefty rain amounts from Debby. Then funnel those all together into the Suwannee River Basin which- even without the higher gauge levels- would already be high thanks to local flooding.
Now we have excess water funneling in from the upper basin on top of extra water already from local sources. This is where river levels continue to rise! It isn't instantaneous either. This takes days for water to find its way all the way from our northern basins into flowing waterways that lead into the Suwannee River near Live Oak and to the Sante Fe River near Three Rivers Estates.

This is the forecast that shows the rapid rise in water over a longer period of time. Major flood stage is set to be hit later this week.

Santa Fe River at Three River Estates levels continue to rise to major flood stage this week
Santa Fe River levels continue to rise to major flood stage this week