TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WTXL) — The only region being monitored for future tropical developments is the central Caribbean Sea, where moisture is shown to gather and atmospheric conditions can support some gradual development of a low-pressure system. Current trends have the moisture and future system meandering a bit in the Caribbean, with a zone of high pressure to the north blocking a swift motion to the north, and some upper-level winds keeping it from ramping up in strength too quickly.
These are all forecast trends that extend into early next week and beyond, where there is no reliable precision in the evolution and projected movement of the system.
With these said, there is no enhanced threat to our region from this feature through early next week. Various versions of forecast models are highly divergent on a long-range course for it, but the general trend signals a slow, meandering path in that time range.
There are already some online weather sources, including from established forecasting firms, that are using spicy language and unexplained Gulf coast maps to raise the concerns of users more than reasonably needed at this phase. I urge caution against putting heavy reliance on these sources. No one has a clear perspective on an outcome, and usually, November tropical systems move northeast and east of the Florida peninsula.
We will continue to provide level-headed daily analysis and updates. There is nothing to fear today.
It's crucial to not give much weight to current long-range forecast model maps and "spaghetti tracks" floating around online which are notorious at being highly erroneous at a far range. Refresh yourself with how to find reliable tropical forecast information online and on social media.
