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Tuesday evening First to Know Tropics check (10/15/2024)

Factors influencing Caribbean moisture (10/14/2024)
Factors influencing Atlantic disturbance (10/14/2024)
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TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WTXL) — The only systems of note in the Atlantic basin are the same ones we've been tracking — a lingering batch of moisture in the western Caribbean Sea, and Disturbance 94L several hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands (an island chain dividing the Atlantic Ocean from the eastern Caribbean Sea).

Neither of these systems have a direct effect on our local weather pattern in the next week to 10 days. A series of high-pressure systems present and coming over the southeastern U.S. through early next week will keep these disturbances well south of our area.

The Caribbean moisture source will move westward into Central American landscape. The Atlantic disturbance will likely maintain a west or even southwesterly course through early next week. Neither are showing aggressive signs of strengthening.

It's crucial to not give much weight to current long-range forecast model maps and "spaghetti tracks" floating around online which are notoriously highly erroneous at a far range. Refresh yourself with how to find reliable tropical forecast information online and on social media.