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Tuesday evening First to Know Tropics check (09/17/2024)

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TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WTXL) — Tropical Depression Gordon in the open Atlantic lost more of its structure Tuesday and is considered a remnant low. Outlooks do suggest it can re-intensify as it moves north, but it will remain far from any land mass.

A typical late-September feature is appearing in forecast guidance. A zone of deep moisture is set to gather in the southern Caribbean Sea late this week and crawl to the northwest through the weekend and early next week. There is no organized disturbance with this right now. We are at least three days from having any reliable insight into its chances to form a low-pressure center, something we should get some slight idea about this weekend. From there, much hinges on what forms and the atmospheric setup surrounding it early next week. It's not impossible to have a tropical system in the southern Gulf next week; it is impossible at this point to suggest any particular outcome, though.

It's crucial to not give much weight to current long-range forecast models and "spaghetti tracks," which are notoriously highly erroneous at this far range. Refresh yourself with how to find reliable tropical forecast information online and on social media.