TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WTXL) — The tropics are quite active, with two named system in the open Atlantic waters, and another stretch of Caribbean moisture that can contribute to a few blips in the Gulf later this week
But, there are distinct differences that will likely prevent a repeat of a storm like last week's Hurricane Helene.
There are two areas of moisture that will move to the northwest and west into the southern Gulf of Mexico this week. The upper-level wind pattern in the northern Gulf is more persistent and stronger than what we had last week.
This will do a few things:
- Create faster air flow aloft that would disrupt a system's circulation structure if it were to enter the northern Gulf region
- Have a stronger tendency to direct a system more to the east if it were to approach that zone
- With help from the northern jet stream, promote cold fronts coming into the region which would stall near or south of our area through the weekend
Also, the water temperatures in the Yucatan Channel — where Helene traveled on its way to the Gulf — are slightly cooler than one week ago.
The current expectation is for these lobes of moisture to meander a bit in the southern Gulf, with some attempt to move north. They are depicted to be generally weak, but can contribute to local higher rain chances this weekend with the next front that's anticipated to approach. If that front lingers into early next week nearby or to the south of the Big Bend coast, the second area of low pressure can be directed more to the east rather than north. Upper winds should still be fairly swift, which can hinder its strengthening efforts.
As with any projected low-pressure system for the Gulf in early October, we will carefully analyze future trends this week and adjust our forecast accordingly.
By the way, none of the open Atlantic systems — Joyce, Kirk, or future developing areas in those distant regions — will have an effect on our local weather pattern anytime soon.
