TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WTXL) — There are two zones of tropical activity being monitored. It is no different from any other late-season level of activity that can occur at this phase of the hurricane season.
A persistent area of moisture in the western Caribbean Sea — another common feature that lingers there in September and October — has a low-end chance to form into something more organized over the course of a week. Most forecast indicators show this wave of action weak and moving mainly to the west over this time frame, which would affect areas of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula more than other areas. A series of high-pressure systems over the eastern U.S. over this time bracket should prevent the disturbance from taking a northerly path.
The second disturbance is known by the label 94L and is several hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands. It has a lengthy path before coming close to any land mass. This one will also be influenced by the positioning and strength of those high-pressure zones over the eastern U.S. and the western Atlantic through early next week. An upper low off the U.S. east coast early next week can attempt to make 94L turn more to the north and northeast early next week, while most current longer-range guidance show it maintaining a west or even southwest path, again caused by the presence of high pressure to its north.
There is absolutely no cause for the Big Bend — or the entire Gulf coastline for that matter — to be alarmed about or be alerted to any impending tropical threats this week. While long-range forecasts and projections are prone to wide swings and shifts, a broader analysis of the atmospheric trends as a whole — and not just a focus on a specific point or two — makes the more-distant possibilities more understandable for the trained forecaster.
I urge users of social media to not share forecasts coming from untrained posters or questionable fly-by-night sources.
