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Tropics check: Moisture blob and the Gulf (09/22/2024)

Tropical disturbance factors through the week of Sept. 22 (09/19/2024)
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TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WTXL) — The week-long monitoring of the tropical moisture "blob" continues to be just that -- monitoring it, since it has not formed into an organized system yet.

But, as I mentioned late last week, this weekend would provide a little more clarity about its future.

Factors influencing its path this week haven't changed. It's becoming clearer that it's set to move toward the central or eastern Gulf of Mexico later this week, as shown in the red shade in the first graphic. The shade gives an idea of where a tropical depression can form within the next few days.

We've seen this episode before, in terms of watching developments, slicing and dicing forecast data, and determining ultimate path and strength and their effects on our area. No two systems behave the same, and past performance doesn't guarantee future results.

It's wise to stay on top of things and check in over the course of this week. We're looking at a Thursday-Friday time frame for local rain and related storm effects. Those precise effects will be ironed out over the coming days.