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Tropics check: Keeping tabs on Gulf moisture (10/04/2024)

Future Gulf disturbance formation chance (4pm 10/04/2024)
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TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WTXL) — We are still keeping watch over waves of moisture scattered across several areas of the Gulf.

Forecast trends continue to work in our favor to keep the bulk of those moisture and disturbed zones well south of the Big Bend. No organized tropical system is forecast to come this way over the next several days.

However, deeper moisture connected to a tropical low moving across Mexico can be the trigger for a ragged area of low pressure to form in the southwestern Gulf this weekend. The pattern favors it moving to the west or west-northwest through early next week.

With cold front coming to and through our area, and upper-level winds overhead flowing to the east at a brisk pace, the moisture and unsettled zone is expected to continue to move generally toward the Florida peninsula and the west coast. It can become a named system, but again, there are no reliable signals showing it taking a more northern path.

Areas of Gulf moisture will influence areas of clouds locally with patchy to scattered showers this weekend, with a gradual decrease in the local rain chances through the middle of next week.