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Tropics check: Caribbean moisture blob (09/18/2024)

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TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WTXL) — While the former Gordon continues to move north in the open Atlantic waters, a separate and relatively closer feature is prompting ongoing close monitoring of development and forecast trends.

The moisture zone has no formal low-pressure circulation as it linger off the eastern coast of Nicaragua. It is not expected to do much in the next two to three days.

The moisture is forecast to set up in the northwest Caribbean this weekend and interact with an upper system to gather some formation of a circulation. From there, some westward drift is possible.

As the system hasn't even truly developed, there is little reliable guidance in forecast data regarding where it goes, and in what form. Any projection of tropical activity beyond seven days is prone to wide error and future adjustments based on forecast trends.

But it can't be discounted that some tropical system in the Gulf next week is possible. What is impossible to say with precision right now is where it will go and how organized or strong it will be.

As a reminder for future tropical systems, First to Know Weather looks for trends and signals from various forecast data sources, not just one model version or a worst-case depiction. When something shows a legitimate near- or long-range concern for the Big Bend/southern Georgia regions, we will notify you accordingly through our numerous digital, online, and broadcast avenues.