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Thursday evening First To Know Tropics check (10/03/2024)

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TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WTXL) — The area we have have been watching since Helene for potential tropical development in the Gulf of Mexico continues to see a decrease in its odds for development. As of 2pm Thursday, an area of moisture that will make its way into the Gulf of Mexico later this weekend only has a 30% chance for developing into a tropical depression or storm over the next 7 days.

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While chances of tropical development are low, we are still watching this area for the potential for heavy rainfall over parts of the Florida Peninsula next week. As of now, the threat for heavy rain looks to remain south of the Big Bend and South Georgia.

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The rest of the tropics remain active. Hurricane Kirk has strengthened into a Category 4 hurricane with 130 mph winds in the open waters of the Atlantic as of 5pm Thursday. While this is a significant hurricane, it will continue to remain out to see as it curves northwards over the open waters of the Atlantic into next week.

Tropical Storm Leslie has maximum sustained winds of 50 mph as of 5pm Thursday, and is expected to strengthen into a hurricane Friday afternoon as it continues west-northwestward over the next week. Early signs show this storm will also remain out to sea, however if it were to be a threat to any of the mainland United States, that wouldn't be until over a week away.

Stay tuned to ABC 27 First To Know Weather for the latest on the tropics this hurricane season.