TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WTXL) — As August begins, the confidence has increased that a disorganized wave of moisture near Hispaniola Thursday afternoon can further develop into a tropical depression this weekend, based on National Hurricane Center assessments.
With the system's position relative to where we are in the eastern Gulf, there's good reason to continue to monitor the trends and changes in the outlook. It's not something for us to get overly worried about about right now. Clusters of storms moving over the islands of the Greater Antilles is what we are watching through Saturday morning.
Looking at different ways this system can or would form, and what paths it would take (still too to declare any one situation with complete certainty), we can tell that a lot will depend when the system gets better organized. It's in the midst of a dry air source in the far southwestern North Atlantic, hindering its development efforts. But that dry air is getting washed out by increased moisture and rain development around the broad disturbance.
The system will likely interfere with more land mass and mountainous terrain in the Greater Antilles of the Caribbean through Saturday morning. This means that strengthening could be further hindered initially.
Some rain could come from this area of disorganization for southern Florida Saturday, and eventually sections of the Florida peninsula Sunday.
The first hints of tropical rain can reach the Big Bend area late Sunday, with generally rainy and squally conditions pegged for Monday.
Another scenario to consider is the moisture blob remaining disorganized and ragged, moving west-northwest for longer, with an advance into the Gulf of Mexico early next week. Slow movement would allow it to be over a warm patch of Gulf waters with limited upper-level wind shear. This would be a formula for intensification. A later turn to the north can create a stronger system with broader implications for the northeast Gulf, the Big Bend, and the Panhandle.
These are all 'what if' situations. And as experience tells us, the eventual solution is somewhere in the middle of these ideas.
There are too many shifts to hold on to just ONE the day they occur- meaning we don't have to fret just because one shift change means a more difficult outlook for us. We are looking for trends over the next few updates. This means as trends and models start to align — which they are more likely to late week early weekend — then we will have a better understanding of how or if it will impact us.
***It is always important to be prepared and keep an eye on the tropics anyway. We are heading into the heart of hurricane season in a few weeks. A hurricane or tropical system can form anytime though. It is important to be prepared before storms form.
Either way, we will keep an eye on it for you, and let you know the latest as we head closer to the weekend.
