TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WTXL) — Our eyes are on the tropics this week. In the western Caribbean, a system designated as Invest 97-L by the National Hurricane Center strengthens.
Organization exceptions over the next 48 hours to 7 day forecast are high. There is a 70% chance of formation over the next 48 hours, and a 90% chance of formation over the next 7 days.
Any impacts would occur well before that 7-day point though.
Here is what we know:
Invest 97-L currently sits to the west of Jamaica and south of the Yucatan peninsula and west coast of Cuba.
By midweek, this system will enter the southern Gulf of Mexico.
At this point, this likelihood of formation will be high. The system moves away from land interaction and into warm water and calmer upper atmospheric conditions.
A tropical system needs a few things to thrive and strengthen: warm water, low friction/ limited to no land interaction, and low upper level wind (shear).
This system will check all those boxes to strengthen as it moves into the southern Gulf midweek.
The system will move north after entering the southern Gulf, and by late-week the Gulf Coast will be feeling the impacts from heavy rain, wind, tornadic potential, storm surge, and even rip currents in those not directly impacted by the storm.
Where those direct impacts will be felt is still to be determined. Remember this system is likely to form in those areas in red. This is NOT a cone and not the path of the storm. While the storm will likely track north, the direct impacts, landfall, and intensity of this storm will be ironed out over the next few days.
We are in 'ready' stage meaning we've identified a system with potential impacts to us. It would be a good idea to get supplies ready, stock up on things you may need if without power for a few days, and make sure previous supplies have been restocked.
The next name on the Atlantic Basin season is Helene and will likely be the name of this system by midweek.
Stay tuned to ABC 27 First To Know Weather for the latest on the tropics.
