TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WTXL) — Rafael dissipated in the Gulf of Mexico Sunday evening, leaving the tropics quiet for a brief period of time.
Our attention in the Atlantic now turns to another area of potential development in the western Caribbean.
An area of tropical moisture south of the island of Hispaniola will move westward over the course of the week and has the opportunity to organize late week into the weekend off the east coast of Central America.
A few reliable models are showing tropical development in this area before a gradual northward movement next week.
It is still too far out to determine where the system will go, if it develops at all.
Typically this time of year, frontal systems start sweeping through the northern Gulf of Mexico, helping to steer tropical systems that do form away from our area.
Rafael took an unusual track for the month of November, but was still kept south of the Northern Gulf coastline by a frontal system as conditions became more hostile for strengthening.
Climatology does tell us most November storms that form in the western Caribbean trek northwards and eventually northeastwards, typically missing the mainland United States.
While we have seen a late start in frontal passages across the area, signs are they will become more frequent in the next few weeks and possibly support this pattern.
A lot can change with this forecast over the next few days, so make sure to stay tuned to ABC 27 First To Know Weather for the latest on the tropics as we fine tune the forecast for this area to watch.
