TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WTXL) — As of Tuesday morning at 11 am EDT, Tropical Storm Helene has formed in the northwest Caribbean Sea.
Hurricane hunters investigating Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine found a closed low-level circulation Tuesday morning with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. This criteria meets tropical storm status, allowing the National Hurricane Center to officially declare this system Tropical Storm Helene.
As of Tuesday morning the storm was about 180 miles from Cozumel, Mexico as was moving northwest at 12 mph. Its highest sustained winds were 45 mph.
Helene is expected to enter the Gulf of Mexico Wednesday as it strengthens into a hurricane. A major hurricane is still forecast by Thursday afternoon before landfall somewhere in the Big Bend or northwest coast of the Florida Peninsula.
A Hurricane Watch is now in effect for all Big Bend counties except Hamilton county east of I-75. This means hurricane force winds over 74 mph are possible within the next 48 hours. While hurricane force winds will not be felt throughout the entire warning area, wherever the center of the storm comes ashore will likely see winds that meet that criteria.
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for the entire Big Bend coastline. Storm surge totals could be as high as 5-10 feet in Franklin County if peak surge occurs at high tide and the county is on the right side of the storm relative to its movement. Wakulla, Jefferson, and Taylor County coastlines could see 10-15 feet of storm surge above normally dry ground under the same circumstances.
A Flood Watch is in effect for all local counties in anticipation of a widespread area of 3-6 inches of rain. Localized areas could see 10 inches plus where the heaviest rain bands set up. The exact location of the heaviest rain is still uncertain.
A tropical system needs a few things to thrive and strengthen: warm water, low friction/ limited to no land interaction, and low upper level wind (shear).
This system will check all those boxes to strengthen as it moves into the southern Gulf midweek.
The system will move north after entering the southern Gulf, and by late-week, the eastern Gulf Coast will be feeling the impacts from heavy rain, wind, tornado potential, storm surge, and even rip currents in those not directly impacted by the storm.
Landfall potential occurs Thursday afternoon along the northeastern Gulf coast, in or near our region.
Where those direct impacts will be felt is still to be determined. Confidence is growing in a landfall in the Big Bend, however that outcome is not yet set in stone. The storm's movement will more than likely continue within the cone, wobbling from time to time as it moves north.
We are in 'set' stage meaning parts of our area are now under a Hurricane Watch. It would be a good idea to get and prepare supplies for use, stock up on things you may need if without power for a few days, secure property, and notify others of your plans.
Stay tuned to ABC 27 First To Know Weather for the latest on the tropics.
