11 AM Update: 9/28
Hurricane Ian is now a strong Category 4 Hurricane as of 11 AM Wednesday morning with winds up to 155 MPH. This nears the Category 5 hurricane status of 157 MPH sustained winds or higher.
Wednesday morning brings us a new idea of where Hurricane Ian's path will lead to landfall.
Central and Southern Florida Gulf cities from Fort Myers to Tampa are bracing for Ian to move ashore as a Category 4 hurricane just after midday Wednesday.
Hurricane Ian winds are around 155 as the storm moves NNE at at 9 MPH.
After making landfall, Ian is expected to turn north/northeast and track over central Florida before moving back over the Atlantic for a brief time and making a second landfall in southwest Georgia.
Locally, affects will start to be noticed Wednesday as breezy conditions pick up.
A few isolated showers cannot be ruled out Wednesday afternoon and evening.
Models have been split this Wednesday morning on where and how much rain the Big Bend and South Georgia will receive.
Most models have the higher rain totals staying north of the storm which is just west of our area.
For now expect totals around 1-3" near the I-75 corridor, but totals are likely to change as the storm nears.
As for wind gusts, tropical storm winds are possible near the southeast side of the Big Bend with tropical storm gusts possible near south-central Georgia and central Big Bend.
Highest gusts come Thursday afternoon right around lunchtime and last through Thursday evening.
If any power outages occur, they will likely be more scattered through the eastern side of the Big Bend and South Georgia. We cannot rule out a few spotty power outages elsewhere though.
Rain and wind chances come to an end Saturday morning and dry conditions return for the end of the weekend.
Ian-related advisories in effect locally:
- A tropical storm warning is in effect for the entire Big Bend coastline until further notice. This means winds of 40 mph and other tropical storm characteristics are expected to begin within 36 hours (likely starting later Wednesday).
- Hurricane Watch has been CANCELLED for our area
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Rain, wind gusts, and spin-up tornadoes from the bands of Major Hurricane Ian have been impacting the southern Florida peninsula late Tuesday night as the storm continues on its way to the southwestern Florida coast Wednesday.
Ian's center is located about 100 miles southwest of Naples and is moving north-northeast at 10 mph.
Peak winds remain at 120 mph late Tuesday night, mainly around the center of hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend 40 miles from the center; tropical storm winds extend 140 miles from the center.
Hurricane Ian remains a Category 3 storm but is forecast to become a Category 4 system with winds near 130 mph by Wednesday.
The intensification trends have met expectations, as the very warm waters in the southeastern Gulf have helped in its strengthening efforts, and may be nearing its peak in the next 12 to 24 hours.
Ian is making a gradual turn to the northeast toward the western side of the Florida peninsula with a closer approach between Tampa Bay and Port Charlotte by Wednesday afternoon.
With the latest track, the southeast side of the Big Bend can still encounter tropical storm wind gusts, with isolated hurricane gusts well offshore waters Apalachee Bay and to the south. Hurricane wind gusts are not expected to impact the Big Bend or southern Georgia.
Ian-related advisories in effect locally:
- A tropical storm warning is in effect for the entire Big Bend coastline until further notice. This means winds of 40 mph and other tropical storm characteristics are expected to begin within 36 hours (likely starting later Wednesday).
- A hurricane watch remains for the waters of Apalachee Bay, beyond 20 nautical miles from the coast.
Heavy rain is also likely throughout eastern coastal areas and portions of the eastern Big Bend and Suwannee River valley. Rainfall forecast vary from less than 2" in the tri-state to over 5" in the mid and lower Suwannee Valley, with isolated amounts exceeding 8" possible. Local freshwater flooding is possible with excessive rainfall totals.
Chances for sustained tropical storm winds are highest in the southeastern Big Bend, with the highest likelihood for a steady trend of winds above 40 mph in the lower Suwannee Valley, eastern Big Bend, and the entire stretch of coast.
Peak effects locally are anticipated to start later Wednesday for the coastline, Thursday in the eastern half of the Big Bend, and nearly area-wide Friday. Storm conditions will subside from south to north later Friday night and Saturday morning.
Slight shifts from the forecast path of Ian's center still cause noticeable differences in anticipated storm effects in certain points of our region. We will stay on top of any small-scale pattern changes that can alter the outlook of storm impacts around the local area.
8 PM Update 9/27:
Major Hurricane Ian is spreading bands of heavy rain across the southern Florida peninsula late Tuesday afternoon with its path set on the southwestern Florida coast later Wednesday and Thursday.
Ian's center is located about 230 miles south of Sarasota and is moving north at 10 mph.
Peak winds are at 120 mph, mainly around the center of hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend 40 miles from the center; tropical storm winds extend 140 miles from the center.
Hurricane Ian remains a Category 3 storm but is forecast to become a Category 4 system with winds over 130 mph by Wednesday.
The intensification trends are meeting expectations, as the very warm waters in the southeastern Gulf have helped in its strengthening efforts.
Ian to forecast make a turn to the northeast toward the western side of the Florida peninsula sooner than previous modeling earlier this week.
With the latest track, the southeast side of the Big Bend can encounter tropical storm wind gusts, with isolated hurricane gusts over offshore waters Apalachee Bay and to the south. Hurricane wind gusts are not expected to impact the Big Bend or southern Georgia.
A series of related watches are in effect locally:
- A tropical storm warning is now is in effect for the entire Big Bend coastline until further notice. This means winds of 40 mph and other tropical storm characteristics are expected to begin within 36 hours (likely starting later Wednesday).
- A storm surge watch has been discontinued for Taylor County. The expected offshore nature of the wind flow will reduce storm surge effects, but a few spots can still experience the rise of water above normal dry ground of around 1-3 feet.
- A hurricane remains for the waters of Apalachee Bay, beyond 20 nautical miles from the coast.
Heavy rain is also likely throughout coastal areas and portions of the Big Bend. Rainfall forecast vary from less than 2" in the tri-state to over 6" in the mid and lower Suwannee Valley, with isolated amounts exceeding 10" possible. Local freshwater flooding is possible with excessive rainfall totals.
Chances for sustained tropical storm winds are highest in the southeastern Big Bend, with the highest likelihood for a steady trend of winds above 40 mph in the lower Suwannee Valley, eastern Big Bend, and the entire stretch of coast.
Peak effects locally are anticipated to start later Wednesday for the coastline, Thursday in the eastern half of the Big Bend, and nearly area-wide Friday. Storm conditions will subside from south to north later Friday night and Saturday morning.
Slight shifts from the forecast path of Ian's center still cause noticeable differences in anticipated storm effects in certain points of our region. We will stay on top of any small-scale pattern changes that can alter the outlook of storm impacts around the local area.
2 PM Update 9/27:
11 AM Update 9/27:
As for the latest update, Hurricane Ian still sits as a Category 3 hurricane with max winds of 115 MPH- weakening a bit after moving over Western Cuba Tuesday morning.
Ian is still forecast to become Category 4 storm later Tuesday evening.
Hurricane Ian is expected to make landfall as a major Category 3 hurricane on the central peninsula coastline near Tampa late-Wednesday night and early Thursday morning.
With this latest track's shift east, our area is put more on the westerly and weaker side of the storm.
We cannot rule out powerful wind gusts at times (especially for southeast parts of the Big Bend) which means power outages are possible, but the latest models have pushed Ian east as it becomes a tropical storm riding up the eastern side of the peninsula Thursday into Friday.
Heavy rain is also possible within most of our area, so local flooding (especially south-central Georgia and the Big Bend) is possible as rain totals look to grow to 3-4" closer to the I-10/ I-75 corridor.
The timing of our impacts (wind, rain, southeast coastline storm surge) will be likely Thursday morning into Friday afternoon.
A series of related watches are in effect locally:
- A tropical storm watch is in effect for the entire Big Bend coastline until further notice. This means winds of 40 mph and other tropical storm characteristics are expected to begin within 48 hours.
- A storm surge watch is in effect from the mouth of the Aucilla River southward along the eastern Big Bend shores, through the Nature Coast and Suncoast of the west Florida peninsula. Along Taylor County, the rise of water above normal dry ground can be 2-4 feet. Higher water level rises are possible in the Nature Coast shorelines.
- A hurricane watch is up for the waters of Apalachee Bay, beyond 20 nautical miles from the coast.
8 AM Update 9/27:
As for the latest update, Hurricane Ian still sits as a Category 3 hurricane with max winds of 125 MPH.
This storm has slowly moved across the western coast of Cuba and is still forecasted to become a Category 4 storm later Tuesday afternoon and evening.
Hurricane Ian is expected to make landfall as a major Category 3 hurricane on the central peninsula coastline near Tampa late-Wednesday night and early Thursday morning.
With this latest track's shift east, our area is put more on the westerly and weaker side of the storm.
We cannot rule out powerful wind gusts at times (especially for southeast parts of the Big Bend) which means power outages are possible.
Heavy rain is also possible within most of our area, so local flooding (especially south-central Georgia and the Big Bend) is possible as rain totals look to grow to 3-4" closer to the I-10/ I-75 corridor.
The timing of our impacts (wind, rain, southeast coastline storm surge) will be likely Thursday morning into Friday afternoon.
A series of related watches are in effect locally:
- A tropical storm watch is in effect for the entire Big Bend coastline until further notice. This means winds of 40 mph and other tropical storm characteristics are expected to begin within 48 hours.
- A storm surge watch is in effect from the mouth of the Aucilla River southward along the eastern Big Bend shores, through the Nature Coast and Suncoast of the west Florida peninsula. Along Taylor County, the rise of water above normal dry ground can be 2-4 feet. Higher water level rises are possible in the Nature Coast shorelines.
- A hurricane watch is up for the waters of Apalachee Bay, beyond 20 nautical miles from the coast.
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5 AM Update 9/27:
Hurricane Ian moves over Cuba Tuesday morning and enters the gulf as forecast suggest continued strengthening Tuesday afternoon and evening.
Hurricane Ian, as of the 5 AM update, is a Category 3 hurricane with max winds of 125 MPH.
A series of related watches are in effect locally:
- A tropical storm watch is in effect for the entire Big Bend coastline until further notice. This means winds of 40 mph and other tropical storm characteristics are expected to begin within 48 hours.
- A storm surge watch is in effect from the mouth of the Aucilla River southward along the eastern Big Bend shores, through the Nature Coast and Suncoast of the west Florida peninsula. Along Taylor County, the rise of water above normal dry ground can be 2-4 feet. Higher water level rises are possible in the Nature Coast shorelines.
- A hurricane watch is up for the waters of Apalachee Bay, beyond 20 nautical miles from the coast.
Heavy rain will impact the Big Bend area as the storm progresses in a more northly movement after landfall Wednesday night, Thursday, and Friday.
Some local flooding from rain runoff is possible during these days.
Tropical Storm wind gusts are possible through central and eastern sides of the Big Bend but are more likely for the southeast Big Bend Thursday into Friday.
We cannot rule out a hurricane force gust around the southeast side of the Big Bend area late Thursday night and early Friday morning either.
Hurricane Ian is still expected to make landfall in the central Peninsula by Thursday early morning as a Category 3 major category hurricane, but turns northeast and that's when we start seeing more widespread impacts of rain and wind to the Big Bend area early Thursday until Friday afternoon.
This storm's shift to the east over the last few advisories puts us on the lesser impacted side of the storm, but keep in mind these models keep shifting. We will keep you up-to-date with as we get closer to the Wednesday night landfall forecast.
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Hurricane Ian remains in a mode of intensification late Monday night as the increasingly powerful storm rips through the western tip of Cuba Tuesday.
Ian's center is located about 100 miles southeast of the western tip of Cuba and is moving north-northwest at 13 MPH.
Peak winds are at 105 mph, mainly around the center of hurricane.
Hurricane Ian remains a Category 2 storm but is forecast to become a major hurricane with winds over 130 mph by Wednesday.
The intensification trends are essentially unchanged, as the very warm waters in the northwestern Caribbean and southeastern Gulf will be fuel to the circulation of the expected hurricane.
However, data trends Monday night suggest a slightly higher chance of Ian to make a turn to the northeast toward the westers side of the Florida peninsula sooner than previous modeling.
With the latest track, the southeast side of the Big Bend can encounter tropical storm wind gusts with isolated hurricane gusts over Apalachee Bay and to the south.
A series of related watches are in effect locally:
- A tropical storm watch is in effect for the entire Big Bend coastline until further notice. This means winds of 40 mph and other tropical storm characteristics are expected to begin within 48 hours.
- A storm surge watch is in effect from the mouth of the Aucilla River southward along the eastern Big Bend shores, through the Nature Coast and Suncoast of the west Florida peninsula. Along Taylor County, the rise of water above normal dry ground can be 2-4 feet. Higher water level rises are possible in the Nature Coast shorelines.
- A hurricane watch is up for the waters of Apalachee Bay, beyond 20 nautical miles from the coast.
Heavy rain is also likely throughout coastal areas and portions of the Big Bend. Rainfall forecast vary from 1-2" in the tri-state to over 6" in the Suwannee Valley, with isolated amounts exceeding 10" possible. Local freshwater flooding is possible with excessive rainfall totals.
Chances for sustained tropical storm winds have increased in the southeastern Big Bend, with the highest likelihood for a steady trend of winds above 40 mph in the lower Suwannee Valley, eastern Big Bend, and the entire stretch of coast.
Peak effects locally are anticipated to start later Wednesday for the coastline, Thursday in the eastern half of the Big Bend, and nearly area-wide Friday. Storm conditions will subside from south to north later Friday night and Saturday morning.
Slight shifts from the forecast path of Ian's center can create stark differences in anticipated storm effects in certain points of our region. We will stay on top of any small-scale pattern changes that can alter the outlook of storm impacts around the local area.
9/26, 8 p.m. Update:
Hurricane Ian's rapid intensification mode is underway as the storm approaches the western tip of Cuba later Monday night and Tuesday.
Ian's center is located about 150 miles southeast of the western tip of Cuba and is moving north-northwest at 13 MPH.
Peak winds are at 100 mph, mainly around the developing eye of the hurricane.
Hurricane Ian is a Category 2 storm and is forecast to become a major hurricane with winds over 130 mph within the next 48 hours.
The intensification trends are essentially unchanged, as the very warm waters in the northwestern Caribbean and southeastern Gulf will be fuel to the circulation of the expected hurricane. Peak strength of Category 4 130-mph winds are noted in the forecast as it moves north, near or west of Key West.
With the latest track, the southeast side of the Big Bend will likely encounter tropical storm wind with hurricane gusts along the coastline.
A series of related watches are in effect locally:
- A tropical storm watch is in effect for the entire Big Bend coastline until further notice. This means winds of 40 mph and other tropical storm characteristics are expected to begin within 48 hours.
- A storm surge watch is in effect from the mouth of the Aucilla River southward along the eastern Big Bend shores, through the Nature Coast and Suncoast of the west Florida peninsula. Along Taylor County, the rise of water above normal dry ground can be 2-4 feet. Higher water level rises are possible in the Nature Coast shorelines.
- A hurricane watch is up for the waters of Apalachee Bay, beyond 20 nautical miles from the coast.
Heavy rain is also likely throughout coastal areas and portions of the Big Bend. Rainfall forecast vary from 1-2" in the tri-state to over 6" in the Suwannee Valley, with isolated amounts exceeding 10" possible. Local freshwater flooding is possible with excessive rainfall totals.
Chances for sustained tropical storm winds have increased, with the highest likelihood for a steady trend of winds above 40 mph in the Suwannee Valley, eastern Big Bend, the entire stretch of coast, and around the I-75 corridor of southern Georgia.
Peak effects locally are anticipated to start later Wednesday for the coastline, Thursday in the eastern half of the Big Bend, and area-wide Friday. Storm conditions will subside from south to north later Friday night and Saturday morning.
Slight shifts from the forecast path of Ian's center can create stark differences in anticipated storm effects in certain points of our region. We will stay on top of any small-scale pattern changes that can alter the outlook of storm impacts around the local area.
9/26, 2 p.m. Update:
11 AM UPDATE 9/26:
Hurricane Ian shows signs of rapid intensification as the storm moves north into favorable conditions for development. This includes warm water (85-90-degrees) and low sheer (upper level winds).
Ian is moving NW at 13 MPH with max sustained winds at 80 MPH.
Hurricane Ian maintains as a Category 1 storm this Monday morning, but is forecast to become a Category 2 storm later today.
The intensification trends are essentially unchanged, as the very warm waters in the northwestern Caribbean and southeastern Gulf will be fuel to the circulation of the expected hurricane. Peak strength of Category 4 130-mph winds are noted in the forecast as it moves north, near or west of Key West.
With the latest track, the southeast side of the Big Bend will likely encounter tropical storm wind with hurricane gusts along the coastline.
Heavy rain is also likely throughout coastal areas of central and especially southeastern sides of the Big Bend along with coastal storm surge possible up to 3-12 ft. near Taylor County shorelines.
There is a chance for tropical storm wind and hurricane gusts for central parts of the Big Bend as well.
The ongoing intensification trend has allowed Ian to become a hurricane.
Ian was moving northwest at 14 mph with max winds around 75 MPH.
In the Lower Florida Keys, the first set of tropical storm watches in the United States were issued, as tropical storm conditions can occur within 48 hours there.
The intensification trends are essentially unchanged, as the very warm waters in the northwestern Caribbean and southeastern Gulf will be fuel to the circulation of the expected hurricane. Peak strength of Category 4 130-mph winds are noted in the forecast as it moves north, near or west of Key West.
Trends favor a gradual turn to the north-northeast over the eastern Gulf. As it parallels near the peninsula, dry air and stronger upper winds in the northern Gulf are factored into a weakening trend for Ian. An eventual landfall of the storm's eye is possible anywhere from Fort Myers to Navarre Beach in the Panhandle.
Even with a possible weakening trend with Ian by Thursday and Friday, the Big Bend region will likely encounter times of heavy rain and squally conditions, with tropical storm sustained winds and wind gusts. Coastal and offshore areas will have very rough surf and chances for storm surge-induced higher water levels and coastal flooding and beach erosion.
Rainfall amounts, generally speaking, can range from 2" to 6" or more, though eventual, specific storm effects for the Big Bend and southern Georgia have yet to be determined.
