TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WTXL) — Ways to receive weather information for our area have undergone revolutionary changes. Gone are the days of waiting for the 6:00 suppertime news and watching a four-minute presentation on the forecast from the TV station meteorologist or flipping to the weather page in the local newspaper first thing in the morning.
Dangers of un-analyzed data
The availability of computer-driven forecast models – previously reserved for dedicated forecasters to slice and dice to create their outlooks for TV, radio, or papers – is now accessible widely and available for use by professionals, amateurs, and the public on digital and social media.
Nowadays, anyone with internet access can use and display these sources of model data, with instant distribution on social media platforms. Many times, the "forecast" is just the computer model plot on a map, or the "spaghetti model" of dozens of squiggly lines showing different track projections. Let's say an influencer based in Arizona, with limited-to-no experience in tropical cyclone forecasting, posts a spaghetti model of a Gulf storm with dozens of tracks covering Florida and calls it a "forecast." There are also cases of social media users with no meteorological credentials posting similar data and add as a disclaimer, "this is not a forecast, but ..."
This free flow of model plots heavily distorts the pool of information which includes the careful parsing of the same data done by meteorologists who take care and time to craft their self-built forecasts. The unfiltered model posts can cause confusion and undue anxiety for consumers who are seeking important forecast information that affects their well-being.
Debby and untrained forecasters
There's a prime example in the postings from scores of sources on social media about this season's two Gulf hurricanes, Beryl and Debby. While broadcast meteorologists have expanded their reach through these modern-day methods to talk about their storm expectations, individual users and online influencers can take computer-generated forecast products and apply as much or as little analysis as desired to create a "forecast" for them.
Leon County did not receive 39 inches of rain from Hurricane Debby. A hurricane did not hit Destin in early August. Nor did Debby make landfall in Alligator Point just because of a late shift in a model update. Yet these specific raw-data prognoses were presented on social media by their publishers, some of which having massive following. The reason why one of these model-based forecasts was displayed was “because [they] can” post it.
I cannot speak to the reasons or motives of online hobbyists or forecasters who tend to post limited analysis of weather forecast data and those spaghetti models that are often displayed in the days ahead of a tropical storm or hurricane impact. But on many occasions, the outcomes of their projections are far different, exposing their vulnerability to becoming (or already being) a source of hugely erroneous and unreliable weather information in the future.
Models vs. forecasts
There is a big difference between sources who post models and sources who post forecasts. It also speaks volumes about those who specifically say “not a forecast, but ...“ versus those who hang their reputation on a specific forecast they make.
There are many versions of models used by trained forecasters, generated by supercomputers using different calculations and producing dozens of different potential outcomes of weather patterns. Effective forecasting requires a level of familiarity and interpretation that only formal training and experience can provide.
There are many online non-local individuals and groups who have good reputations, a record of accuracy, and levelheaded presentation and explanation of their outlooks.
No one knows local tropical weather for northern Florida and southern Georgia like the local meteorologists in various forms of media who live locally.
How to find trustworthy sources
Who can you trust online with reliable local weather information during the hurricane season?
Our Sunrise meteorologist Elizabeth Copeland has roots here in the Southeast and has experienced a wide array of weather conditions.
Riley Winch, our weekend meteorologist, has been trained and educated through the FSU meteorology program and has sharp knowledge of regional weather patterns and unique techniques on messaging the forecast through graphics and digital media.
I've lived along the Gulf my entire life and have willfully committed almost two decades to the state line region. I don't care about going viral or having millions of clicks and shares. I do care about providing trustworthy, accurate assessments of weather during bad and good weather times for all of my neighbors and communities. I will always operate the First to Know Weather department and my team with this philosophy in mind.
Other reliable sources include:
- National Weather Service meteorologists in Tallahassee and Jacksonville (which covers the Suwanee River Valley counties)
- Other current and former Tallahassee media market meteorologists, some of whom have many years of monitoring local weather happenings
How to assess your current weather sources
You can review any of your current preferred weather forecast providers on social media:
- How much thought and analysis do they put into their posts?
- What experience and credentials do they have?
- What is their tone when they present new information? How much hyperbole is used?
- How much reliance do they place on showing raw data without explaining what it means?
- How well do they know local geography?
- Have their materials been peer-reviewed and certified by the National Weather Association or the American Meteorological Society?
Hurricane season is just reaching the half-way mark. To avoid hype, anxiety, and fear – watch, follow, and support local meteorologists with a record of service, accuracy, and good reputation. Some digital weather influencers may not always have your best interests -- or the best forecasts -- in mind.
