TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WTXL) — NOAA's Climate Prediction Center releases a new outlook for the ongoing 2023 Atlantic hurricane season.
The CPC has a 70% confidence rate in storm activity increasing to 14-21 named storms this season.
Including the named storms already taken from this list this year, 6-11 hurricanes are expected through the end of the season.
Two to five are expected to be major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher).
Sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Basin are breaking records this season, and forecasters attribute this to the higher confidence in the 'above normal' outlook.
Hurricanes need warm water and low shear (upper level winds) to thrive. Confidence in the 'above normal' outlook also comes from the forecast of weaker trade winds and normal or above-normal West African Monsoon helping prompt more storm activity in the coming months.
Our current El-Nino pattern, which typically hinders tropical activity, has a 95% chance of continuing through winter in the Northern Hemisphere.
Even during this El-Nino event, CPC forecasters are more confident that suppressed trade winds, record-breaking sea surface temperatures, and other pro-formation atmospheric conditions will help full this newly updated 'above normal' outlook for the 2023 Atlantic Basin hurricane season.
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 until November 30.
