TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WTXL) — The First to Know Weather team first noted a currently disorganized area of moisture in southern Central America Tuesday, which had potential to undergo a development phase.
The National Hurricane Center latched on to forecast data patterns Wednesday evening, and, with more forecast guidance analyzed Thursday, gives the system a higher chance to further develop by the weekend and early next week.
While the forecast trends are still being established, with wide differences in how things evolve, several longer-range projections show this area of moisture eventually making a northward drift by this weekend into the western Caribbean and/or over the Yucatan Peninsula.
Closer to the Florida/Georgia line region, a broad area of low pressure is forecast to enter the Southeastern U.S. from the continental north early next week.
While far from being set in stone — with the realization that forecast data ranging beyond seven days carries a wide margin for errors — these and other factors are raising rain chances for the Big Bend region and the Florida peninsula early to middle next week.
There is no guarantee that a tropical disturbance will develop in the Gulf next week, since a zone of faster upper-level winds is also projected to be in place over the southern Gulf through this weekend. But we are in that time of year when tropical systems are prone to develop more frequently, as we have seen with four named storms since last weekend. And from current accounts, this system has a decent chance to cause soaking rain for sections of the Florida peninsula while it attempts to get better organized.
It's a great time to remind folks that disturbances over tropical waters, in the right setup, can lead to hassles for Gulf and Atlantic coastal locations. We'll remain diligent with the analysis of upcoming forecast trends related to this and other areas of unsettled weather in the tropical Atlantic basin.
