Thursday 11/14/2024 4:00 am Update:
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen has been upgraded to Tropical Depression Nineteen.
The storm sits about 280 miles east of Isla Guanaja, Honduras and holds wind speeds of about 35 mph around a better developed wind field center.
This system is still very weak and unorganized, but it will further organize throughout the weekend.
More than likely, this system is to be named 'Sara' later Thursday.
This tropical system looks to meander around the southern Gulf before making a northeasterly turn early next week.
There are a lot of factors that will play into where this storm moves and how strong it will be. We will know a lot more based upon the location of high pressure in the Atlantic and an area of high shear (upper level wind) from a cold front moving south across the southeast midweek next week, too.
These will all help determine where this system goes and how strong or weak it will be. Stay tuned for the latest.
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Wednesday 11/13/2024 10:00 PM Update:
The latest Caribbean disturbance in this late phase of the hurricane season has a greater chance to organize into a tropical storm by the end of the work week.
The still-sloppy-formed disturbance has highest winds of 30 mph and is moving west at 9 mph.
The forecast for Potential Tropical System 19 is for it to move slowly to the west in the waters of the western Caribbean through Friday, growing into Tropical Storm Sara by then.
High pressure it the storm's north (over Florida and the Southeastern U.S.) through the weekend will contribute to its slow movement and delayed turn to the north.
Next week, that high-pressure zone is expected to move to the east. Around or beyond Monday is when the system can make a turn to the north, toward the southern and southeastern Gulf of Mexico.
Beyond the scope to today's forecast cone, trends generally suggest a turn to the northeast by a cold front moving east from the Mississippi Valley. This can potentially direct the system toward the western coast of Florida.
There's naturally an overall lack of precision regarding whereabouts on the western coast the future Sara may touch land, and in what form.
Generally speaking, a system that stays over water for longer and turns to the north/northeast sooner can be in a stronger form, possibly hazardous for the southern half of Florida. A system that goes over land around Central America, then farther north before turning northeast, will be weaker, based on current forecast analysis.
