Friday 11/15/2024 4:00 pm Update:
Tropical Storm Sara maintains its peask sustained winds of 50 mph as it continues to move west just north of the Honduras coastline.
Its forward speed has slowed to 2 mph.
A weak or mid-grade tropical storm will slowly approach the coast of Belize Sunday afternoon where it will make landfall and dissipate over the Yucatan Peninsula.
Meanwhile life-threatening flooding is expected for parts of Central America as the system moves very slowly while dumping heavy rain.
After the remnants of Sara emerge in the Gulf of Mexico early next week, what is left of the storm will merge with a cold front moving through the basin.
This cold front will bring cloud cover and showers to Florida and South Georgia on Tuesday and Wednesday, but no significant tropical impacts are expected.
After the cold front, below average temperatures will bring the first taste of winter to the Big Bend and South Georgia starting Thursday next week.
Thursday 11/14/2024 10:00 pm Update:
Tropical Storm Sara's center is skimming the northern shoreline of Honduras with highest winds of 40 mph.
This system is still very weak and disorganized, but it will strengthen a little bit more throughout the weekend.
Land interaction with the Yucatan Peninsula will likely weaken Sara back to a tropical depression early next week as it emerges over the western Gulf of Mexico.
A frontal system entering the northwest Gulf next week will pick up the storm and move it to the northeast, however this will also create upper-level wind shear that will help inhibit strengthening and likely further weaken the storm.
Sea surface temperatures below 80 degrees off the coast of Florida will also be helpful in keeping the storm from strengthening the closer it gets to the Sunshine State.
We'll continue to watch Sara throughout its lifespan, but the concern level for the Big Bend and south Georgia is currently low.
The most probable scenario is the leftover moisture from Sara will merge with the frontal system, causing local and Florida statewide rain chances around the middle of next week.
By the weekend, we'll be more precise about how much rain can occur here, so make sure to stay tuned to ABC 27 First To Know Weather for the latest.
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Thursday 11/14/2024 4:00 am Update:
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen has been upgraded to Tropical Depression Nineteen.
The storm sits about 280 miles east of Isla Guanaja, Honduras and holds wind speeds of about 35 mph around a better developed wind field center.
This system is still very weak and unorganized, but it will further organize throughout the weekend.
More than likely, this system is to be named 'Sara' later Thursday.
This tropical system looks to meander around the southern Gulf before making a northeasterly turn early next week.
There are a lot of factors that will play into where this storm moves and how strong it will be. We will know a lot more based upon the location of high pressure in the Atlantic and an area of high shear (upper level wind) from a cold front moving south across the southeast midweek next week, too.
These will all help determine where this system goes and how strong or weak it will be. Stay tuned for the latest.
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Wednesday 11/13/2024 10:00 PM Update:
The latest Caribbean disturbance in this late phase of the hurricane season has a greater chance to organize into a tropical storm by the end of the work week.
The still-sloppy-formed disturbance has highest winds of 30 mph and is moving west at 9 mph.
The forecast for Potential Tropical System 19 is for it to move slowly to the west in the waters of the western Caribbean through Friday, growing into Tropical Storm Sara by then.
High pressure it the storm's north (over Florida and the Southeastern U.S.) through the weekend will contribute to its slow movement and delayed turn to the north.
Next week, that high-pressure zone is expected to move to the east. Around or beyond Monday is when the system can make a turn to the north, toward the southern and southeastern Gulf of Mexico.
Beyond the scope to today's forecast cone, trends generally suggest a turn to the northeast by a cold front moving east from the Mississippi Valley. This can potentially direct the system toward the western coast of Florida.
There's naturally an overall lack of precision regarding whereabouts on the western coast the future Sara may touch land, and in what form.
Generally speaking, a system that stays over water for longer and turns to the north/northeast sooner can be in a stronger form, possibly hazardous for the southern half of Florida. A system that goes over land around Central America, then farther north before turning northeast, will be weaker, based on current forecast analysis.
