TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WTXL) — Saturday 11/09 7 PM Update: Meteorologist Riley Winch
Rafael is officially on its last leg.
Now a 50 mph tropical storm over 250 miles south of the Louisiana Coast, wind shear is steadily weakening the storm as it meanders in the west-central Gulf of Mexico.
The storm will become a remnant low by Monday, posing no threat to land.
The satellite presentation clearly shows a lopsided storm where most of the thunderstorm is removed from the center of the storm to its east.
Some scattered showers and periods of heavy rainfall are possible in coastal Louisiana this weekend in combination with a frontal system approaching the area, but no direct impacts from the storm are expected in the United States.
Locally in the Big Bend and South Georgia the humidity and overcast skies continue with no threat from the tropics!
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Friday night update (10pm 11/08/2024)
Rafael quickly lost organization in the western Gulf Friday, leading the system to become a tropical storm.
It will move slowly west, then mainly south, over the weekend as the weakening process continues.
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Thursday 11/7 AM Update: Meteorologist Elizabeth Copeland
Rafael continues a westerly turn taking its track farther from the Big Bend coastline.
Be aware of a few areas of 'training' across our area. This is where showers set up in a band across one area. As showers move, they move over isolated areas bringing heavy rain in short amounts of time. We have already seen flooding concerns early this Thursday morning as a result.
Hazards still include rough seas and rip current conditions.
Make sure you take an alternate route if you come across flooded areas! Have a safe Thursday.
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Wednesday 11/6 PM Update: Chief Meteorologist Casanova Nurse
After being a highlight in recent tropical trends over the last couple of weeks, the resulting Hurricane Rafael slammed into western Cuba as the season's latest major hurricane.
What are the projections for Rafael to cause issues here in the Big Bend area?
With the core of the storm set to turn to the west while in the southern reaches of the Gulf of Mexico, and with the storm being relatively compact, the effects to be experienced along our shores continue to be minimized.
We've seen the general feed of tropical moisture flowing ahead of the hurricane, reaching our region Wednesday in the form of clouds and periods of showers and rain. A separate system in the Southeast enhanced the rain intensity in southern Georgia, causing concerns for flooding and flash flooding. However, the Wednesday night local rain is not a direct cause from, nor directly connected to, Hurricane Rafael.
By Friday, that flow of tropical moisture will decrease over the local region and consolidate closer to the circulation of Rafael.
Waves generated by the winds in Rafael had been upwards of 15 to 20 feet in height in the southern Gulf. As Rafael maintains hurricane level when it moves west by Friday, those swells across the eastern Gulf can result in some choppier conditions in Apalachee Bay. Seas beyond 20 nautical miles can experience swells to nine feet Thursday night and Friday.
Disruptive wind gusts over land are not anticipated. Breezes well offshore (beyond 20 nautical miles) may approach 35 knots.
